Preseason Rankings
Atlantic 10
2018-19


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
71 Saint Louis 31.2%   12   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 10 12 - 6 +7.4      +3.0 95 +4.4 49 61.6 337 0.0 1 0.0 1
88 Davidson 21.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 11 - 7 +5.4      +4.5 65 +0.9 138 61.7 335 0.0 1 0.0 1
103 Rhode Island 14.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 10 - 8 +4.1      +0.6 144 +3.5 69 70.1 150 0.0 1 0.0 1
106 Saint Joseph's 14.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 14 10 - 8 +4.0      +0.6 147 +3.4 73 74.5 58 0.0 1 0.0 1
107 Dayton 14.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 13 10 - 8 +3.8      +2.9 98 +0.9 137 65.8 259 0.0 1 0.0 1
119 St. Bonaventure 11.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 13 10 - 8 +3.2      +1.2 128 +2.0 112 71.2 118 0.0 1 0.0 1
127 Virginia Commonwealth 12.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 15 9 - 9 +2.7      +0.6 143 +2.0 110 74.9 51 0.0 1 0.0 1
129 George Mason 9.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 14 10 - 8 +2.6      +1.8 117 +0.8 141 70.7 132 0.0 1 0.0 1
130 Richmond 8.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 13 9 - 9 +2.6      +2.6 102 0.0 167 68.7 188 0.0 1 0.0 1
154 Massachusetts 4.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 16 8 - 10 +0.6      +1.5 124 -0.9 198 66.0 255 0.0 1 0.0 1
166 La Salle 4.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 8 - 10 -0.2      +0.3 160 -0.4 179 70.8 131 0.0 1 0.0 1
182 Duquesne 2.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 16 7 - 11 -1.0      +0.3 157 -1.3 214 65.3 275 0.0 1 0.0 1
208 George Washington 1.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 19 7 - 11 -2.9      -1.7 217 -1.2 211 64.0 307 0.0 1 0.0 1
267 Fordham 0.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 19 5 - 13 -5.9      -5.9 323 -0.1 169 65.1 279 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Saint Louis 3.8 29.1 16.8 12.1 9.8 7.7 5.6 4.8 4.2 3.1 2.5 1.8 1.5 0.8 0.4
Davidson 4.9 17.8 13.4 12.5 10.6 8.6 7.7 6.5 5.6 4.8 4.1 3.4 2.5 1.5 0.9
Rhode Island 6.0 10.8 10.1 9.5 9.5 9.0 8.0 8.2 7.6 7.0 6.0 4.9 4.7 2.9 1.6
Saint Joseph's 5.9 12.5 10.2 10.0 9.1 9.0 8.1 7.7 7.4 6.4 5.6 5.3 3.9 3.3 1.6
Dayton 5.9 11.8 10.6 10.2 9.7 8.3 8.2 7.9 7.4 6.3 5.7 5.0 4.2 3.1 1.7
St. Bonaventure 6.1 10.8 9.9 9.5 9.4 9.1 8.5 7.7 7.2 6.7 6.1 5.2 4.6 3.2 2.0
Virginia Commonwealth 6.6 8.3 9.0 9.1 8.1 8.3 8.4 8.0 7.8 7.5 7.1 6.1 5.1 4.5 2.8
George Mason 6.4 7.9 8.9 9.0 9.4 9.1 8.8 8.6 7.5 7.5 6.7 5.5 5.2 3.7 2.1
Richmond 6.6 7.6 8.9 8.6 9.1 8.7 8.8 8.0 8.2 7.4 6.6 5.7 5.4 4.4 2.7
Massachusetts 8.1 4.0 4.8 6.0 6.4 7.0 7.3 7.0 8.3 8.6 8.7 9.1 9.3 8.2 5.3
La Salle 8.3 3.4 4.2 5.1 5.7 7.1 7.5 7.6 8.5 8.6 8.5 9.4 9.5 8.9 6.1
Duquesne 8.8 2.7 3.6 4.0 4.9 5.9 7.0 7.9 8.1 8.4 9.7 10.0 10.4 9.6 8.0
George Washington 9.7 1.5 2.2 2.9 3.7 4.6 5.3 5.5 7.4 7.6 9.7 10.5 12.1 13.5 13.7
Fordham 11.5 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.8 2.7 3.5 4.5 5.3 6.7 9.4 12.5 19.4 31.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Saint Louis 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 1.2 2.1 3.5 4.8 6.9 8.5 10.8 12.4 12.5 12.4 10.0 8.0 4.1 1.6
Davidson 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.2 3.9 5.6 7.5 8.9 11.0 12.3 11.9 11.1 9.3 6.8 4.3 2.3 0.5
Rhode Island 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.7 4.4 5.9 8.1 10.2 11.2 11.5 11.2 10.0 8.9 6.1 4.1 2.3 1.0 0.2
Saint Joseph's 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.5 4.0 6.2 7.9 9.1 10.8 11.2 11.6 9.7 9.3 6.6 4.7 2.7 1.1 0.3
Dayton 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 2.5 3.9 5.8 7.9 9.8 10.3 11.7 11.1 10.1 9.1 6.5 4.9 2.6 1.1 0.3
St. Bonaventure 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.1 4.1 6.5 8.3 9.5 10.5 11.6 11.5 10.2 8.0 6.3 4.3 2.3 1.1 0.2
Virginia Commonwealth 9 - 9 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.3 3.5 5.3 6.9 9.2 10.1 11.4 11.3 10.1 9.1 7.8 5.5 3.2 1.8 0.7 0.1
George Mason 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 3.1 5.1 7.0 8.6 10.4 11.7 12.0 11.3 9.5 7.3 5.5 3.2 1.6 0.7 0.1
Richmond 9 - 9 0.0 0.4 1.1 2.0 3.5 5.4 7.1 8.7 10.7 11.2 11.9 10.9 9.0 7.6 5.2 3.1 1.5 0.6 0.2
Massachusetts 8 - 10 0.2 0.9 2.3 4.6 6.4 8.6 10.7 11.3 11.4 10.2 9.5 8.2 6.5 4.2 2.4 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.0
La Salle 8 - 10 0.3 1.0 2.6 4.6 6.9 9.9 10.6 11.3 11.5 10.5 9.8 7.4 5.8 3.5 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
Duquesne 7 - 11 0.3 1.5 3.4 5.7 7.7 10.1 11.1 12.1 11.8 10.1 8.7 6.9 4.6 2.9 1.8 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.1
George Washington 7 - 11 0.9 2.8 5.5 8.9 10.4 11.7 12.0 11.8 9.8 8.1 6.6 4.8 2.8 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fordham 5 - 13 3.9 8.2 12.2 13.4 13.9 12.9 10.1 8.2 6.7 4.5 2.9 1.4 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Saint Louis 29.1% 19.8 6.8 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Davidson 17.8% 11.2 4.9 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
Rhode Island 10.8% 6.1 3.3 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Saint Joseph's 12.5% 7.5 3.5 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Dayton 11.8% 7.0 3.2 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
St. Bonaventure 10.8% 6.3 3.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0
Virginia Commonwealth 8.3% 4.6 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.0
George Mason 7.9% 4.5 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Richmond 7.6% 4.1 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Massachusetts 4.0% 2.2 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
La Salle 3.4% 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Duquesne 2.7% 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
George Washington 1.5% 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fordham 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Saint Louis 31.2% 20.3% 11.0% 12   0.2 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.2 2.0 1.8 2.2 3.6 6.2 5.5 3.1 1.5 0.8 0.4 68.8 13.7%
Davidson 21.8% 13.1% 8.7% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.8 2.3 4.2 4.5 2.1 1.1 0.7 0.3 78.2 10.0%
Rhode Island 14.6% 9.4% 5.1% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.9 3.4 1.9 1.0 0.6 0.3 85.4 5.7%
Saint Joseph's 14.7% 9.0% 5.7% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.3 1.5 3.0 3.3 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.4 85.3 6.3%
Dayton 14.3% 8.7% 5.6% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.5 2.7 2.6 1.7 0.9 0.5 0.4 85.7 6.1%
St. Bonaventure 11.3% 7.5% 3.8% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 2.1 2.6 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.3 88.7 4.1%
Virginia Commonwealth 12.0% 6.5% 5.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.5 2.7 2.3 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.2 88.0 5.9%
George Mason 9.6% 6.8% 2.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.7 1.6 2.2 1.5 1.0 0.8 0.2 90.4 3.1%
Richmond 8.8% 7.0% 1.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.2 1.9 1.8 1.3 0.7 0.4 91.2 1.9%
Massachusetts 4.8% 3.8% 1.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.6 95.2 1.1%
La Salle 4.2% 3.4% 0.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 95.8 0.8%
Duquesne 2.9% 2.5% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 97.1 0.5%
George Washington 1.7% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 98.3 0.1%
Fordham 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Saint Louis 31.2% 4.0% 29.4% 12.3% 4.5% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Davidson 21.8% 3.5% 20.0% 8.0% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Rhode Island 14.6% 2.4% 13.2% 4.4% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 14.7% 2.6% 13.3% 4.4% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Dayton 14.3% 2.3% 13.2% 4.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 11.3% 1.7% 10.5% 3.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Virginia Commonwealth 12.0% 2.4% 10.6% 3.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 9.6% 1.6% 8.7% 2.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 8.8% 1.3% 8.2% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Massachusetts 4.8% 0.6% 4.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 4.2% 0.8% 3.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 2.9% 0.5% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 1.7% 0.4% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.5 56.9 34.7 7.7 0.8 0.0
1st Round 99.3% 1.4 0.7 64.5 29.3 5.1 0.4 0.0
2nd Round 40.5% 0.5 59.5 34.8 5.3 0.4 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 14.0% 0.1 86.0 13.5 0.5 0.0
Elite Eight 4.5% 0.0 95.5 4.5 0.0
Final Four 1.4% 0.0 98.6 1.4
Final Game 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Champion 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2